Aat Pisanwanich, the director of the centre, said its forecast called for growth in a range from 20.6% to 25.2% to between US$183.86 billion and $190.76 billion, or an average of 22.9% to $187.13 billion at the end of this year.

The figures represent a major upward revision from an earlier forecast of 10-15%, largely because of robust growth in the first half of the year.

For the first six months, Thai exports earned $93.07 billion, up 36.6% year-on-year, prompting the Commerce Ministry to raise its official target to at least 20% to $189.9 billion.

The centre forecast the growth rate for the second half would become slow to between 7.7% and 15.9% to a range of $90.8 billion and $97.7 billion.

Exports for the third quarter are expected to gain 17.6% to $48.3 billion and $45.9 billion in the fourth, up 6.3%.

Mr Aat said the baht was still moving in line with other currencies in Asean and Thailand's trading partners and competitors, so it had yet to affect the country's exports too much.

He forecast the baht would average 31.6 to the dollar in the third quarter and could become as strong as 29.8 in the fourth quarter.

The baht averaged 32.8 to the dollar in the first quarter and 32.3 in the second.

It has been the third best performer in Asia this year, behind the Japanese yen and Malaysian ringgit, gaining 7% against the dollar since January.

The ongoing baht appreciation has prompted concerns among business leaders and policymakers about whether the country would lose competitiveness in global markets.

Mr Aat said other key risk factors included the global economic slowdown and Vietnam's dong devaluation.

"Thailand's exports already passed a pinnacle in June and will cool down in the second half, as global economies, particularly in developed countries like the United States, Japan and Europe, have yet to show a clear sign of full recovery and their unemployment remains relatively high," he said.