However, the downturn in estimated mill use has comfortably exceeded the fall in output, with the result that the season’s apparent surplus has risen by almost 500,000 tons since November, to over four million tons.

Since Cotlook’s initial estimates for 2011/12 were published in late February of this year, the production forecast has fallen by nearly 850,000 tons, whereas the consumption figure has contracted by a remarkable 14 percent, or 3.7 million tons.