The most significant revision to our 2010/11 global production and consumption forecasts during the past month has involved China. We have reflected the increased credence given to the more pessimistic estimates in circulation in that country of late. The implication of that change is that China will need to absorb a larger proportion of the limited global supply this season. It is therefore significant that crop prospects in major exporting nations, such as India, Brazil and Uzbekistan, have improved.
Following last season’s massive drawdown in global stocks, we continue to foresee a further reduction during 2010/11. However, the extent of that decrease could be affected by the current high level of international prices, which some predict could begin to ration offtake during the next few months.
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